Monday, June 29, 2009

More Thoughts on Iran

As Iran moves from the public view, it is time to take stock and remember what has occurred over the past week. The world saw the resistance to the Mullahs rule and that all is not well within the theocracy. For most of those who protested, it is not the revolution of the mullahs that inspire but the revolution of freedom from outside of Iran that inspires. There are two revolution going on within the Middle East and beyond throughout the Islamic world. It is the world of the old versus modernity. For most Iranians, they were born after the revolution and what they experience is economic stagnation and lack of freedom. They see the world through tweeter, face book, blogs and the internet in general and they see a world where human potential is celebrated not repressed.

The two sides are different for one promise a world set in the past, a medieval past and the second vision a future that freedom and liberty is the guiding light. The Iran is the domino that will determine the fate of a region and possibly a religion.

Honduras

Here is Obama dilemma in Honduras. There will be pressure to support the ousted President and it will be Obama instinct to do just that since the Honduras President was a noted Hugo Chavez ally and leftist; the kind of politician that many of his own party are comfortable with.

The Army was told by the Court not to participate in the upcoming referendum and the President goal was to set up his version of Hugo Chavez fascist regime in Honduras. The Army intervened to ensure that the Court Decision was enforced and in the long run, this could strengthen Honduras dictatorship.
Obama jumped on to condemn Honduras present government efforts to keep itself from falling into the grasp of Chavez but he had to shamed into supporting the Iranian people against their government. There is big disconnect with the Obama foreign policy.

Bush world views vindicated

A week ago, I stated and now will state again, Bush's world view of his first administration has been vindicated. Iran is showing that it is the axis of evil and North Korea continues to be a thorn in everyone side or most everyone side.

The real problem is the lack of recognition by the present administration. The Obama administration has finally made their voices heard but what you don't hear is what to do now. When confronted with a similar crisis, Reagan kept the pressure on by speaking the truth. He joined the Vatican to aid the Solidarity and kept the movement alive. Working with liberal unions like the AFL-CIO and Lane Kirkland, the Reagan administration smuggled faxes and other communication devices to allow Solidarity to communicate with each other beyond the reach of the Soviets and their Polish puppets. This not only kept the movement alive but it also encourage the Poles to resist.

Obama needs to do similar things and here, he can get bipartisan cooperation with Republicans and others outside the political mainstream to encourage the resistance to continue. Obama has to decide whether he wants regime change or the status quo. If he settles for the latter, he will go down in history as a failed foreign policy President. If he does the former, he will not only enhance his legacy as a liberator but he will continue the domino effect started with the previous Bush's administration and forge a new bipartisanship in foreign policy.(It should be noted that much of Bush's Iraq policy had its roots in the Clinton years.)

Obama has yet to show that he really wants the Iranian people to succeed and his actions are starting to speak louder than his word. As one former Spanish prime Minister wrote, silence is not an option and will only encourage the crackdown of the dissident and discourage those beneath the Mullah's harsh rule. The less we speak and the less we encourage, the less chance of success. This is the time for truth.

The real lesson of Sanford

There is one thing that I find interesting about the scandal involving Mark Sanford of South Carolina. Forget the media treatment, it is the treatment of political parties toward their candidates. Republican voters are less tolerant of politicians who break promises or their marriage vows than Democrats. In the early 80's, Democrat Representative Gerry Studds was caught having sex with male pages and Daniel Crane with female pages. Studds not only showed no remorse for his desire for teenage boys, he revel in the publicity. His voters rewarded him with continuous elections for his behavior. Crane, on the other hand, saw his political career crumble as Republican voters sent him packing in the next primary. Studds died a hero in the eyes of the media a few years back; portrayed as some Civil right defender. (Never mind the fact that he took advantage of his position to nail teenagers while a congressman.) Crane is unknown to many today and his name long since forgotten.

Republican Mark Foley is an ex congressman for suggestive emails and Democrat Barney Franks is still a major player despite having a former lover run a prostitution ring out of his house.

Many Republicans joined in the condemnation in asking for Sanford to go. (Granted many of these Republicans have their agenda.) The bottom line, whether it is for breaking no tax pledges or anything else, conservatives and Republicans are less forgiving than Democrats. That is the real lesson here, rarely discussed.

Michael Jackson, Billy Mays, and Farah

A few thoughts and I then I move on. The genius of Michael Jackson lay less in his music but his promotional ability to fuse Hollywood and Pop. His video set new standard at the time in an era in which MTV was the video king and most videos were shade above amateur status.

Jackson coaxed Hollywood directors and actors to participate in his lavish production and basically turn regular pop songs into Broadway spectacles. This pushed his albums to record level and the rock video world was never the same. Jackson completed the task of turning Rock into pop and strictly establishment. Rock ceased to be the music of rebellion and merely became another art form in which billions could be made. It morphed into big business. Rock always had a economic component to it but Jackson cemented it permanently. Jackson genius was promotion and marketing; no one did it better than he.

As for Farah, a friend of mine quipped that she did more with one year on television than any other actress. It is hard to believe that she was on Charlie's angel for just one year but it is a fact. After one year, she moved from being an actress to icon and fame secured.

Which brings us to Billy May, who passed away. No one made a big deal out of Mays death but he became the new symbol of the infomercial; a man who could promote anything and did. He became the new symbol of the new promotion as he hawked everything from soaps to ESPN 360. He was the new business model for many products hitting the market.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Iran, Bush world vindicated.

In six short months, Barack Obama has seen his own worldview come crashing down and the Bush’s worldview has all been vindicated. In particular, the Bush Axis of evil which included Iran and North Korea has proven correct. Consider that Obama quietly have continued much of the Bush’s policy in Iraq and Afghanistan and I will predict that a year from now, Gitmo will still be open. The appointment of Bob Gates as a transitional figure was specifically to complete Iraq policy of turning Iraq over to the Iraqis, which was the Bush’s policy and review the war in Afghanistan. There is nothing to suggest that Bush policies would have been different if George Bush or John McCain been President.

In the case of North Korea and Iran, the policy of talk, talk, talk has failed under the reality that both of these regimes have no incentives or desire to give up their nuclear ambitions and in the case of Iran, be the dominant Muslim policy in the Middle East. The North Korea tests including threatening to send a missile toward Hawaii is a direct challenge to the new Administration and Gates decision to put a missile defense around Hawaii is a direct slap to the original Obama plan toward North Korea. It also questions the wisdom of reducing money for strategic defense. The Navy threats to board a North Korea ship as part of strategy in reducing North Korea ability to import their nuclear technology.
The recent crisis in Iran shows the regime in its true self and it shows that many within Iran are no longer willing to allow the Mullahs to be their master. They only have to look east to see that a Muslim nation can be free and this is not the time to be quiet but the time to encourage the downfall of the Iranian government. This is no longer about Moussavi for he is merely symbol of something deeper. There is no evidence that Moussavi is prepared presently to eliminate the present regime but Iranian people are prepared and the longer the opposition go on; the more fragile the present regime becomes.

This could be the game changer for if the Iranian regime collapses, the Middle East becomes a safer place and easier place to follow through on past policies, policies of allowing more freedom in the Middle East and just as important, friendlier to the West. Hamas would find their main protector gone and Hezbollah weaken within Lebanon. This is Obama moment, a moment similar to the rise of Solidarity movement in Poland when Reagan moved in 1981. Reagan, along with the Vatican, supported Solidarity , kept the movement alive throughout the decade and this became the first crack toward ending the Soviet Empire. The people may be not successful immediately but the first crack in the Islamic Republic has appeared.

Bush world view has been vindicated. And Obama has the opportunity to build a bipartisan consensus that recognize the reality of the world as it is, not as we wish.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Obama moment

Obama moment has arrived on foreign affairs and so far he is failing. He is being pushed into a moment he doesn't understand or wants. He was perfectly willing to deal with the present government and now the government legitimacy has been challenged. To talk with government at this time can be classified as politically stupid with nothing to gain except to keep the present regime in power. Obama now must be lead instead he is following. It is that 3 am call and as some one noted, it went straight to email.

Moussavi, the Iranian Yetsin

Moussavi may be the Iranian Yetsin, the instrument that ended the Iranian Islamic Republican but there is one thing to understand, people are ahead of their leaders and if they win, the Islamic Republic is over. And that is to good.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Iran and Obama moment

Obama has his opportunity to make his mark and he is blowing it, yes he is blowing it. As one pundit observed, the past two American Presidents would have had no trouble siding with Iranian people but instead Obama silence or wiliness to ignore the street protest in his grand design for Mideastern peace plan is more than deafening, it is eroding American Moral standing in the world.

With the chance to weaken the major contributor of instability in the Mideastern presently, he sits back and allows the present regime to torture their people.

Here is what others are saying.

Victor Davis Hanson:

Criticizing the Ahmadinejad government for its election fraud and its response to peaceful demonstrations is not synonymous with crudely egging on street demonstrations. Reagan found a way to voice support for the Polish resistance to Soviet thuggery. Kennedy made sure that the Berliners knew that we believed they were right and the Soviet-sponsored East German Communists wrong.

Then, of course, there is Obama and his quest for a global messianic rather than an American presidential role. So far it pays to be Hamas and the Palestine Authority rather than Israel, Chávez rather than Uribe, Ahmadinejad rather than Maliki, Putin rather than an Eastern European elected prime minister, a Turkish Islamist rather than a Greek elected prime minister. The former all gain attention by their hostility, the latter earn neglect by their moderation and generally pro-American views. Praising Islam abroad is a lot more catchy than praising democracy — one boldly inspires Bush’s critics, the other sheepishly dovetails with Bush’s agenda. All that, in varying degrees, also explains the troubling neglect of the Iranians in the street.

Charles Krauthammer:

Even from the narrow perspective of the nuclear issue, the administration's geopolitical calculus is absurd. There is zero chance that any such talks will denuclearize Iran. On Monday, President Ahmadinejad declared yet again that the nuclear "file is shut, forever." The only hope for a resolution of the nuclear question is regime change, which (if the successor regime were as moderate as pre-Khomeini Iran) might either stop the program, or make it manageable and nonthreatening.

That's our fundamental interest. And our fundamental values demand that America stand with demonstrators opposing a regime that is the antithesis of all we believe.

And where is our president? Afraid of "meddling." Afraid to take sides between the head-breaking, women-shackling exporters of terror -- and the people in the street yearning to breathe free. This from a president who fancies himself the restorer of America's moral standing in the world.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Business plans matter

Business plans matter. Consider this, if you are a business man or even investors; you don't just react to the past but to the future. If you see a business environment in which the cost of business will go up and a government hostile to business; the reaction will be re-entrenchment in which business don't hire or reduce future hiring.

My financial planner predicts 12-13% unemployment. If this occurs, can Obama survive?

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Richard Nadler RIP

I have known Rich Nadler for 21 years and seen his particular genius close up. Nadler began his career as a man of the hard left who moved right. Nadler once told me that the issue that cemented his turn to our side was when Ronald Reagan decontrolled the price of oil in the early 80’s. When the price of oil went down instead of up as predicated by many of the left, he decided to revaluate his own opinion. The energy crisis and environmental issues were among the reason for his own shift not to mention the burden that government produced on the working man.

From there, Nadler began the Missouri Taxpayers Watchdog Association and it was that capacity that I first met Rich in 1988. I was running the Mary Ellen Lobb congressional campaign in Missouri Fifth district and he was moving his operation to Kansas City. That month, he also began the KC Jones, and I was one of the original writers for this conservative alternative magazine, and we were the only group of journalists who believed in free Markets in the Kansas City market. This journal also provided the beginning of John Berlau now with the Competitive Enterprise Institute and National Review Ramesh Ponnuru while produced lively writing from pointing the absurdity of leftist ideas to some of the best movie reviews ever written and even occasional sports column (which became one of my primary responsibility which continues today.) Nadler combined his work as a journalist with his activism for lower taxes, reduced government and education reform. These crusades allowed him to make alliances with many different groups including including many African-Americans who found their children often stuck in inferior schools.

The biggest contribution that Rich Nadler made to the conservative movement was to use his learning as an activist and began the process of building a theory on how to create a lasting conservative majority. Starting with researching the investor class and building upon his experience working with African-Americans on education reforms as well as fighting big spenders; he develop a coherent theory of how to build a new conservative majority.

Nadler put much of these theories in action as he formed the American Majority Foundation and from there, he participated in electoral campaigns to help sell social security reforms, challenging the conventional wisdom of global warming, but his biggest success came in moving minority votes to conservative point of views. Working on shoe string budget, he never failed to move numbers minorities toward free market position. Example of this included increasing George Bush African-American percentage to 16% in the 2004 election and even kept that total in the 2006 debacle while saving three Republican house seats. In the recent election, the only two states that Americas PAC were involved statewide were Wisconsin , in which African-American totals for McCain-Palin doubled the national average and Colorado, the only state that McCain actually beat Bush’s percentage among Hispanics from 2004.
His most recent campaign on immigration centered on two goals: keep the business class aligned with the social conservatives while maintaining progress Bush made among Hispanic in 2000 and 2004. His support for comprehensive immigration reform, albeit controversial among The Corner, was based on free market principles.

Nadler was many things, a friend whose hand shake was all that ever needed when it came to business, and as Ramesh already noted, he was a devoted Orthodox Jew, and a loving husband. For those of us were lucky to have know Rich will never forget the lessons he taught us and the love he gave us.

When the Chinese lecture us

You know the world is upside down when the Chinese is lecturing us on preserving the value of the dollar.

Obama going Argentina.

Obama loves Europe and is trying to model our Nation after Europe, but they are closer to Juan Peron Argentina model. What we are seeing the government control banking and now controlling key industry through government fiat. What we are seeing government funding being spread around to key political allies that have nothing to do with economics or even any sound principle of economics. It is about rewarding key constituency to get elected and elected. It is the Latin America model, Banana Republic and all.

GM and fairness.

Obama administration talk fairness but let be blunt, this administration policies have nothing to do with fairness. Consider the GM deal and the previous Chrysler deal. First, the bondholders got totally screwed while the Unions got the lion share of the deal. Who are those bondholders? They are the rich and the middle class, folks who have taken out bonds to help the two Auto giants but the government has decided they should pay the price while the unions get the gravy. What we are seeing is a group of workers who make more than the average worker including in their industry being subsided by those who are making less. Somehow no one has questioned this. This deal is many things but it is not fair.

Back in the saddle

Back in the saddle after a little vacation from writing in the blog. Much has happen as the socialism creeps ever so forward. Gm is now Government motors, the dollar is sinking slowly as the administration is working on devaluing the currency. The first Hispanic is nominated and one of her famous quotes, “Hey I am Latino and smarter than the white guys.” Or something to that effect.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

The Dollar is dying

The Chinese and Brazil are both saying no to the dollar as they are looking to escape the Dollar as the world currency. This is a reflection of the weakness of Obamaeconomics. And it is sign that in four month, Obama has managed to send a signal to our friends, enemies and rivals that America is in decline. Just in four months.

In our moment of discontent

American conservatism is on the fence and darkness surrounds the whole movement. The Iraq war has demoralized the nation and the Left is on the rise. 2008 was our summer of our discontent and stock market and financial meltdown all but ensure that the neo socialist left would win the election. Yet, for the past thirty years since the Reagan Presidency, America has reached new heights never seen in its history. Even with American troops appeared stalemated in Iraq, America is the lone superpower in the world and her ideals are what being debated through the world. We are living in the era of Reagan and Reagan influence has moved beyond the GOP, it has moved throughout the world.

During the primary season, every Republicans claims Reagan as their heir and Reagan was the embodiment of what modern American conservative evolved into. From the time he entered the national political scene with his speech, “a time to decide” during the tail end of the 1964 presidential campaign, Reagan put forth a coherent conservative philosophy before a nation and Party. From this point, he laid the background for his own Presidential runs, culminating in his 1980’s victory. Sarah Palin final remarks in her debate with Joe Biden were Reaganesque in stature. For Reagan, his conservative philosophy was more than written philosophy but emotive experience. In 1964, Barry Goldwater was called Mr. Conservative but in the end it was Reagan who became Mr. Conservative.

About conservatives, Authors John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge wrote, “Traditional conservatism was based on six principles: a suspicion of the power of the state; a preference for liberty over equality; unashamed patriotism; a belief in established institutions and hierarchies; a pessimistic, backward-looking pragmatism; and elitism. This was the creed that Burke shaped into a philosophy in the 18th century--and that most famous conservatives, from Prince Metternich to Winston Churchill, understood in their bones.” American conservatives led by Reagan believed in the first three but they often broke with classical conservatives on the final three.

American conservatives reject hierarchies in favor of meritocracy. American conservatives often celebrate businessmen and make them heroes and Reagan depended upon a kitchen cabinet that consisted upon businessmen and entrepreneurs. As Micklethwait and Woodridge noted, “The heroes of Burke's conservatism were paternalist squires, who knew their place in society and made sure everybody else did as well.” Snobbery is now a purview of the left as oppose to the right, who worship of the working man who makes success out of nothing. The Kennedys represent a royalty of the left. Wealthy and living off inherited wealth, the Kennedys never truly established new businesses but went into politics. The sons of Joseph Kennedy consider politics their birthright and often spend most of their political career attacking businesses and the business class. If anything, each generation of Kennedy’s have become more radical and Ted Kennedy himself led this movement to the hard left from a more softer liberalism practiced by his two older brothers.
The great Presidents of the 20th century represent these modern day quandaries. Franklin Roosevelt was born of wealth and established the welfare state. Throughout much of his first eight years, he declared war on American business and often considered a traitor to his class. Reagan, born of middle class alcoholic father, made his way in life. There was no silver spoon born in Reagan mouth like there was in FDR. Much of the academic world today from their ivy towers form the background of the leftist philosophy, while much of business class support the academic world through donations. Throughout the first decade of the 21st century, much of the left political activity has been financed by wealthy leftist activists such as George Soros. Without the funding of Soros and others; Barack Obama would not be possible and the massive opposition to the war would have been hampered, if not impossible.

In the 1970’s, new entrepreneurs changed the world and while the world suffered through oil shock and stagflation, these entrepreneurs set the stage for the Reagan recovery that still existed through the 80’s. Apple and Microsoft were nothing but someone imagination as the 70’s began but today, Microsoft is today’s GM. The technology unleashed in the 80’s has become the basis of today’s economy.
The Reagan era celebrated the business man as the new hero. Merit triumphed over hierarchy and it was the left, who adopted the new hierarchy. The Kennedys replaced the Roosevelt as new royalty. The American conservative rejected the new hierarchy and replaced with the new hierarchy. The irony is that FDR and his successor claim that their policy was designed to save the common man but Reagan showed that the common man can, indeed, succeed on his own.

William Sumner wrote, “As soon as A observes something which seems to him to be wrong from which X is suffering. A talks it over with B and A and B then propose to get a law passed to remedy the evil and help X. Their law always proposes to determine what C shall do for X or in the better case, what A, B, and C shall do for X… What I want to do is to look up C. I want to show you what manner of man he is. I call him the Forgotten Man. Perhaps the appellation is not strictly correct. He is the man who never is thought of.. He works, he votes, generally he prays- but he always pay.”
FDR saw victims, Reagan saw opportunity. FDR formed the welfare state, Reagan the opportunity state. FDR always looked after X but it was Reagan, who looked at the Forgotten Man, only because he started out as that Forgotten Man.
Churchill "preferred the past to the present and the present to the future”, whereas Reagan followed Tom Paine’s adage that, “we have it in our power to begin the world over again.” Over a debate in which Walter Mondale questioned the space program, Reagan merely responded, "The American people would rather reach for the stars than reach for excuses why we shouldn't."

William F. Buckley once quipped that he would rather be ruled by 200 people out of the phone book as oppose to the faculty of Harvard. Reagan proved to be more of a populist than his critics as Reagan moved beyond the country clubs and boardrooms and spread conservatism to the common man. The conservative activist or the talk show host did much to spread the conservative movement. Elitism is scorned among American conservatives. This is not to say that elites are not admired for what they do, they are not worshipped. (This is not same that conservatives appreciate intellectual pursuit. It is that many of academic elites have been wrong more time than the common men they often scorned for their beliefs in God and guns.)