Iowa Caucus part 2
On the Eliot Spitzer show, In the Arena, Iowa Congressman Steve King produced a minor earthquake in the Iowa political landscape. Pressed by Spitzer on ethanol subsidies, King made the point that the ethanol industry can stand on its own. For those who are familiar with Iowa politics and the Iowa caucus, ethanol subsidies were one of the main reasons for the caucus and its place on the primary calendar. Many Republican presidential hopeful have pledged their loyalty to the subsidies but this year, there have been a shift of Republicans attitude toward ethanol. On his time for truth tour, Tim Pawlenty told Iowa voters the time have come to wean Iowa off subsidies as part of a larger strategy to reduce energy subsidies in general. The first inclination was to ask Mr. Pawlenty, now that you have given up on Iowa, what about New Hampshire? Pawlenty may have been on to something as Sarah Palin and now King, who represents many corn farmers in his district, both agreed; it is time to end the subsidies. Opposing ethanol subsidies may not doom an Iowa campaign.
Mitt Romney, who has been playing a game of will I or won’t I when it comes to campaigning in Iowa, came out strongly for the subsidies soon after Pawlenty called for the end to the subsidy. With Huckabee out of the campaign picture and Pawlenty calling for the end of ethanol subsidies, Romney might be rethinking his strategy of waiting for New Hampshire. In 2008, Romney went all out in Iowa and lost to Huckabee, wounding his own campaign. Romney strategy this year was to use New Hampshire as the springboard for his campaign but with his public declaration for ethanol subsidies; he may have decided that his more moderate campaign may attract enough voters to win Iowa in a five or six candidate race where the rest will be going after the conservative and evangelical voters. Of course, Romney pandering to the ethanol merely reinforces what many think of Romney, a man who is willing to do anything or say anything to win. In the past, calling for the end of Iowa subsidies meant a candidate was already on his way to New Hampshire. Romney support for subsidies may not be the boost needed to win Iowa.
Iowa businessman Bruce Rastetter and other Iowa big donors’ big mission to entice Chris Christie have proven to be a failure as Christie made it clear; he is staying as the governor of New Jersey. Christie will visit Iowa but not as a candidate.
For many Iowan politicians, their biggest fear is that Iowa caucus will have little impact on the race and some GOP donors view a less than impressive field as hurting the Iowa caucus. Iowans have defended their berth as the first in the nation caucus and if many of the major candidates ignore the caucus and gear up for the primary states afterwards; it weakens the case for having Iowa first in 2016. As long as Iowa impact can be felt, then the early caucus have a reason to exist and one of Iowa major contributions is that it eliminates many candidates before the primary season. Candidates like Huntsman and Romney may find that other primary states more to their liking and allow the conservatives to beat themselves up in Iowa. Another thing that bothers some GOP Iowans is that it will highlight one wing of the Party while ignoring the “more moderate or more establishment” wing.
Sarah Palin is a star in her own right and her bus tour leaves the question, will she or won’t she? There are many reasons for Palin not to run; not the least her negatives may be too high to overcome. Her bus tour may be a trial run to see if a candidacy is possible or judge voters reaction. She is looking more like a candidate every day.
The conventional wisdom among many is that a Palin candidacy sucks the oxygen out of those in the second tier just as Bachman, Pawlenty or Cain; in particular in Iowa. There is one flaw to that; Palin has virtually no organization in Iowa to speak of and Iowa, like New Hampshire, is still depends upon a retail style of politics. As Iowan Senator Grassley once observed, running for President in the Iowa caucus is like running for Sheriff, people want to see you, shake your hand and judge for themselves who you are. Palin can’t expect to win Iowa without at least having some element of organization. Every four years, there are talk of the new campaign but in the end, it is about raising money, putting an organization together and getting out the vote. Palin has yet to do that and the longer she waits, the more difficult it becomes.
Mitt Romney, who has been playing a game of will I or won’t I when it comes to campaigning in Iowa, came out strongly for the subsidies soon after Pawlenty called for the end to the subsidy. With Huckabee out of the campaign picture and Pawlenty calling for the end of ethanol subsidies, Romney might be rethinking his strategy of waiting for New Hampshire. In 2008, Romney went all out in Iowa and lost to Huckabee, wounding his own campaign. Romney strategy this year was to use New Hampshire as the springboard for his campaign but with his public declaration for ethanol subsidies; he may have decided that his more moderate campaign may attract enough voters to win Iowa in a five or six candidate race where the rest will be going after the conservative and evangelical voters. Of course, Romney pandering to the ethanol merely reinforces what many think of Romney, a man who is willing to do anything or say anything to win. In the past, calling for the end of Iowa subsidies meant a candidate was already on his way to New Hampshire. Romney support for subsidies may not be the boost needed to win Iowa.
Iowa businessman Bruce Rastetter and other Iowa big donors’ big mission to entice Chris Christie have proven to be a failure as Christie made it clear; he is staying as the governor of New Jersey. Christie will visit Iowa but not as a candidate.
For many Iowan politicians, their biggest fear is that Iowa caucus will have little impact on the race and some GOP donors view a less than impressive field as hurting the Iowa caucus. Iowans have defended their berth as the first in the nation caucus and if many of the major candidates ignore the caucus and gear up for the primary states afterwards; it weakens the case for having Iowa first in 2016. As long as Iowa impact can be felt, then the early caucus have a reason to exist and one of Iowa major contributions is that it eliminates many candidates before the primary season. Candidates like Huntsman and Romney may find that other primary states more to their liking and allow the conservatives to beat themselves up in Iowa. Another thing that bothers some GOP Iowans is that it will highlight one wing of the Party while ignoring the “more moderate or more establishment” wing.
Sarah Palin is a star in her own right and her bus tour leaves the question, will she or won’t she? There are many reasons for Palin not to run; not the least her negatives may be too high to overcome. Her bus tour may be a trial run to see if a candidacy is possible or judge voters reaction. She is looking more like a candidate every day.
The conventional wisdom among many is that a Palin candidacy sucks the oxygen out of those in the second tier just as Bachman, Pawlenty or Cain; in particular in Iowa. There is one flaw to that; Palin has virtually no organization in Iowa to speak of and Iowa, like New Hampshire, is still depends upon a retail style of politics. As Iowan Senator Grassley once observed, running for President in the Iowa caucus is like running for Sheriff, people want to see you, shake your hand and judge for themselves who you are. Palin can’t expect to win Iowa without at least having some element of organization. Every four years, there are talk of the new campaign but in the end, it is about raising money, putting an organization together and getting out the vote. Palin has yet to do that and the longer she waits, the more difficult it becomes.
posted by Tom Donelson at 8:10 PM
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